HVAC
How to Estimate a Heat Pump Replacement
Contractor method for estimating heat pump replacement: sizing, efficiency, ductwork and removal.
Heat pump bids fail on sizing and the hidden work: the old unit removal, the permit and the ductwork nobody mentioned. Here is the process that keeps quotes accurate.
THE SHORT ANSWER
How do you estimate a heat pump replacement?
Start with a Manual J load calculation, compare current SEER2/HSPF2 equipment, then price the unit, ductwork if needed, removal, labor and permits. Use $4,500-$12,000 only as an initial air-source planning range.
Size the system properly
Use a Manual J load calculation that accounts for envelope, climate, ventilation and design temperatures. Square-foot rules are only a rough reasonableness check and must not select the equipment on their own.
- Count conditioned square footage
- Note insulation and window quality
- Check existing duct sizing
- Record the current system capacity
Pick the efficiency tier
Compare current SEER2 and HSPF2 ratings for the exact equipment. The calculator's tiers add 10-30% as planning factors; replace them with supplier quotes. Verify current federal, state and utility incentives before showing any credit.
Price the hidden work
Removing the old unit runs $800-$1,000, new ductwork $3,000-$5,000, permits $400-$600. These line items decide whether the job is profitable or a loss. Use the Heat Pump Replacement Cost Calculator to build the full quote.
Check the total and incentives
Reconcile every calculator allowance against current supplier, crew and permit quotes before markup. Show only incentives whose eligibility and current funding you verified for the customer and equipment.